For those of us who follow the Sport of Kings the adage that ‘Class is King’ is a well known phrase, indicating that the ‘Class’ horse will always be ‘King’. So well known in fact, and so often quoted in the press, that it makes up many a punter’s betting strategy. So I thought it high time I checked it out through the stats, in this my second article in the series on Form Analysis, to prove once and for all if it is actually a winning betting mantra.
- Just as many horses drop in class as go up in class with no clear improvement in winning
- Horses who drop class only win a small 5% more races which is too small a benefit in statistical terms
- This trend continues even after 2 or 3 races within the new class
So what did I find? Is Class King? Well amazingly it seems not! Yes, that’s true. I’ll say it again. Class is not King!
The stats firmly show that; so it might be time to re-visit your betting plan if you follow the classic ‘Class is King’ belief as it seems it could be costing you money. Having previously proved in my last blog that last time out winners have a high statistical likelihood to do it again, next time you place a wager it may pay to follow Form and forget Class.
For the full article, all the statistics and info for FREE (including the previous amazing revelation on last time out winners for those who don’t ready have a copy) simply e-mail me at admin@racinginfoservices.co.uk.
Hi Chris, yes it’s ok to send anything re horse racing, I am surprised at your findings re Class
I will drop you a line when i have read all you have sent.
Barry
Hi Chris: Another good piece of work. I remember years ago there were a lot of pseudo-systems around that looked at Class from the point of view of the different Racecourses (Ascot – Class 1; Beverley – Class 3, etc.). This was before the days of class of races (in terms of Class 5, Class 6 etc.).
The problem with Class (as you have ably demonstrated) is that no race carries with it an inherent Class. The Derby is the highest-class race in the UK, but if one year it was contested by a bunch of selling-platers, then it would be a selling-plate class race (for that year).
The class of any individual race is only determinable by the horses that run that race (and possibly how quickly they run).
Hi Chris
Tremendous statistical analysis and the results of which are truly startling. I like many others have just accepted that in racehorses class is class and woe betide any daring to challenge this.
It does now mean of course in the normal analysis of form when seeking to unravel a race that the class criteria will have to be looked at in an entirely different manner, certainly in terms of initial elimination from consideration on the grounds of class.
Terrific stuff and really appreciated
kind regards
Rick
hi chris,
really interested at your statistical look at horse racing. have tried and looked into many systems but am amazed by the stats regarding class in your last article.
was also very interested in your previous article, especially when looking at % of new runners that win. have kept my eye on this and took a punt on one called sheilas castle last week at 16/1 and in it came!! i know this is not a system but has definately given me a new way to look at race-cards.
much appreciated
trev
Hi Chris,
What a joy to run across someone who can declare “5% .. is too small .. in statistical terms”. When you consider the blandishments of the system-flogging brigade trying to convince us of the miracle of their (alleged) tweak producing 51% winners instead of 49, your approach is refreshing indeed.
The dog herself has nodded wisely.
Hi Chris
I am not surprised at your conclusions on the class of the race.
I tested a lay system for 18 months that depended on horses rising in class between their races. The system was a great way to lose money.
Keep up the good work.
Robin.