Going, Going Gone! (Form Analysis Part 5)

With the change in the weather and the change in the going that is accompanied by the rain (and snow), it’s time to look at the Going Factor. In my fifth article on Form Analysis, I take a closer look at ‘Going Form’, what it means and how we can use it to profit.

I have heard it said many times by many prominent Form Analysts that when the rain comes down and the ground gets soggy that there are only three factors to be considered when analysing a race; the going, the going and the going! When the going gets bottomless and the mud starts to fly many punters either stop betting or start losing! I’m going to show you how to profit, what to look for and show you the best types of race to be betting in, when all others are losing money hand over fist, I’m giving you the tools once again to PROFIT.

Here are some of the facts and figures that I have unearthed in this article:

• Regardless of the finish position of a horse in its previous race, the most important factor was the going in that race!
• When the All Weather tracks change from ‘Standard’ to ‘Slow’ horses with ‘going form’ have almost a 20% advantage!
• On the Flat in Heavy going, NO ‘going form’ means you LAY the horse; they have a 6% strike rate!
• In Bumpers (Nation Hunt Flat) races in Heavy going, ‘going form’ means you BACK the horse; they have a 42% strike rate!

The full article includes a simple ‘Going Ratings’ system and much more information and statistics, as always the article is totally free, just e-mail me at admin@racinginfoservices.co.uk. I will send this article as well all previous articles (if I haven’t already sent them to you), no charge, no obligation, yours to profit from.

C, D, CD and BF – Cracking the Code! (Form Analysis Part 4)

Welcome to the fourth article in my series on Form Analysis, if you have already read the first three then you’ll be glad to hear that this one is shorter and hopefully easier to digest!

This time I have taken a look at how can we affectively use those letters indicating Course, Distance, Course and Distance wins and Beaten Favourite that are found on most race cards. Once again using the statistics, I have come up with a simple Rating system that can be used alongside the Rating systems from previous articles.

Some Statistics

• An increase in the number of wins at Course or Distance doesn’t offer any advantage.
• How being on a Winning Favourite can double your chances of winning.

For the full article including the rating system as well as all the previous articles just e-mail me at admin@racinginfoservices.co.uk. I will send this article and all previous articles (if I haven’t already sent them to you), for FREE, no charge, no obligation.

Weight It Up! More Punts to the Pound. (Form Analysis Part 3)

There is probably more talk and discussion about the weight carried by Race Horses, than any other area of Horse Racing. With all the talk and discussion there are also a number of assumptions that are banded around as fact, as well as many facts that are dismissed as rumour! While Race Horses are handicapped the fervour will continue, and the betting public will be barraged with opinion dressed up as fact.

So it’s about time to have a close, statistical, look at weight; time to right those rumours and reinforce those facts. This is my third article in the Form Analysis Series, and this time I am lifting the lid on the weight debate.

Some interesting Statistics about Weight:

• In a Handicap race a horse going UP in the weights can have a POSITIVE advantage!
• 26% of Non-handicap races are won by horses carrying the same weight as its last outing.
• Horses dropping in weight can be at a bigger disadvantaged than horses going up in the weights.

Has the handicapper got it right? Want to know how to rate any Race Horse using Weight? Read the full article and you can work it out for yourself!

The full article is available by e-mailing me at admin@racinginfoservices.co.uk. There is no charge for this, the third in a series of articles looking at Race Horse Form Analysis once again trying to help you win more often and win more profitably!

Is Class Really King? (Form Analysis Part 2)

For those of us who follow the Sport of Kings the adage that ‘Class is King’ is a well known phrase, indicating that the ‘Class’ horse will always be ‘King’. So well known in fact, and so often quoted in the press, that it makes up many a punter’s betting strategy. So I thought it high time I checked it out through the stats, in this my second article in the series on Form Analysis, to prove once and for all if it is actually a winning betting mantra.

• Just as many horses drop in class as go up in class with no clear improvement in winning
• Horses who drop class only win a small 5% more races which is too small a benefit in statistical terms
• This trend continues even after 2 or 3 races within the new class

So what did I find? Is Class King? Well amazingly it seems not! Yes, that’s true. I’ll say it again. Class is not King!

The stats firmly show that; so it might be time to re-visit your betting plan if you follow the classic ‘Class is King’ belief as it seems it could be costing you money. Having previously proved in my last blog that last time out winners have a high statistical likelihood to do it again, next time you place a wager it may pay to follow Form and forget Class.

For the full article, all the statistics and info for FREE (including the previous amazing revelation on last time out winners for those who don’t ready have a copy) simply e-mail me at admin@racinginfoservices.co.uk.

Can’t Win – Won’t Win (Form Analysis Part 1)

Anyone who follows horse racing or bets on sport knows that there are as many reasons why a selection can win as much as why it can’t. Form, past record at that venue, weather conditions, trainer, jockey, manager ability, how far travelled to get there and the wild and wonderful like ‘last one out of the paddock first one home’, ‘first team to have a shot at goal in the warm up wins as not shot shy’ and the classic dog that reminds me of someone (it’s true I can tell you!!). There has to be something that can give us an edge? Well form is the best and most recent.

Form analysis is a massive and complicated subject, and is riddled with misconceptions, weak theories and poor advice, what I am going to do is give you the statistics to make up your own mind.

But some facts are amazingly insightful and potentially profitable:

• 78% of races are won by a horse that has previously recorded a win
• A pervious win is significant if it happened in the horse’s last 3 races
• A second or third is only significant if recorded in the horse’s last 2 races
• A Fourth is only significant if recorded in the horse’s last outing
• All other finishing positions and past races statistically bare no relation to the horse’s winning potential.

Want to know how to use these facts to produce the ‘Results Grid’ and generate a ‘Results Rating’ for any horse in any race?

E-mail me for free at admin@racinginfoservices.co.uk and I will send you the full inside information. There is no charge for this, the first in a series of articles looking at Race Horse Form Analysis which can help you win more often and win more profitably.

Shouldn’t everyday be Lady’s Day?

Shouldn’t everyday be Lady’s Day? Am I just being overly chivalrous again, and trying to get in favour with the fairer sex? Not exactly but I am always trying to get myself out of the dog house!

Let me explain what I’m on about, now follow me on this because I’m about to go off on a bit of a tangent here. How many times have you overheard a conversation at the race course or the bookies or read a statement on a forum where someone pontificates about not backing a horse because the jockey is a woman? The horse having three legs is a valid reason for not backing the horse but not backing the horse because there’s a woman in the saddle well that’s plain sexist! Surely just because the jockey is a woman doesn’t make her any less able and skilled to bring the horse home in front than her male counter parts, does it? Well obviously some people think lady jockeys are inferior to male jockeys, and all I can say is that’s their loss and I mean that quite literally.

However this did make me think, what if these punters of prejudice have a point, what if the ladies can’t compete as jockeys with the men, what if they just don’t have what it takes, what if they can’t cut the mustard. That would be a blow to the feminist movement, and it would certainly get us analysts working away with angles and systems every time a lady jockey is declared in a race.

So this now begs the question are the ladies as good as, if not better than, their male colleagues as jockeys? The only way to settle this answer is to turn to the trusty stats! Let’s take a look at the top five male and female jockeys of last year’s flat season and see what the statistics have to say about this. For this exercise we’ll take the top 5 as ordered by the number of wins registered, (which in my opinion is not necessarily the best way to determine the top jockeys, but if I go off on this subject and start ranting about statistics there may be no return!)

In the Men’s Corner

Jockey	Runs	Wins	Strike Rate	AVG Winning SP	AVG SP
Ryan Moore	874	137	15%	4.14	7.23
Richard Hughes	695	95	13%	5.32	9.45
Paul Hanagan	773	82	10%	5.74	12.16
Jamie Spencer	583	72	12%	3.74	8.25
Darryll Holland	517	67	12%	5.57	12.12

In the Lady’s Corner

Jockey	Runs	Wins	Strike Rate	AVG Winning SP	AVG SP
Hayley Turner	470	42	8%	7.45	17.90
Kristy Milczarek	225	23	10%	10.06	17.76
Kelly Harrison	256	16	6%	9.28	27.04
Catherine Gannon	280	13	4%	19.73	32.60
Sophie Doyle	102	6	5%	8.22	28.85

Well well well, this doesn’t look good for the lady jockeys does it? At first sight it looks as though the man get more rides, more winners and a better strike rate than the ladies, but wait a minute things aren’t over yet there’s more to this story that first meets the eye! Look at the average SPs that the ladies are returning these are far high than those of the men. This would indicate that the quality of the horses or the preserved chance of the lady’s mounts winning is far lower than that of the men. So the ladies are at a disadvantage having lower quality horses to compete on, that being the case you would expect their strike rate to lower. Better horses means more winners, it’s logical, so we need to compare like for like. We need to level the playing field so to speak, the only way to do that is to look at those rides that are comparable, and the most obvious way to do that is to look at those horses that went off favourite in their race. So let’s have a look at how these two set of jockeys fair when we look at just those horses that went off as favourites. This way we know that all the jockeys have a similar quality of ride, or at least a similar chance of winning.

In the Men’s Corner (just the favourites)

Jockey	Runs	Wins	Strike Rate	AVG Winning SP	AVG SP
Ryan Moore	232	73	31%	1.84	2.28
Richard Hughes	122	40	32%	2.11	2.42
Paul Hanagan	119	37	31%	1.62	2.29
Jamie Spencer	103	34	33%	2.23	2.65
Darryll Holland	60	21	23%	2.52	2.52

In the Lady’s Corner (just the favourites)

Jockey	Runs	Wins	Strike Rate	AVG Winning SP	AVG SP
Hayley Turner	41	12	29%	1.46	2.89
Kristy Milczarek	16	5	31%	3.25	2.78
Kelly Harrison	15	5	30%	2.75	2.78
Catherine Gannon	6	2	30%	3	2.93
Sophie Doyle	4	1	15%	4	4.25

Right….now we see a totally different story! If we put the ladies on a horse that has the same chance of winning as that of the gents’ then it does appear that they can hold their corner. Look at the strike rates now that we have filtered down the list of runners to just those that went off favourite and both the ladies and gents have very similar strike rates, which would lead me to believe that there is no absolutely no truth in the statement that male jockeys are better than female jockeys. What’s even more interesting is the prejudice against the lady jockey is such that the SP returned for the lady’s when on the favourite is in fact higher than that for their male counter parts; in fact it’s around 25% higher! Now this is worth taking note of!

Now I haven’t done the number crunching but I’m almost certain that the same is going to be true of amateurs and apprentices. Who like the lady jockeys are not fashionable riders, unlike those gents at the top of the jockeys league table. Unfortunately many punters cannot look past what is fashionable and what is not to see the truth beneath; if they did they would see a whole new field of betting opportunities at great value opening up to them.

So I guess the moral of this tale, if there is one, is that just because the jockey isn’t fashionable it isn’t an excuse not to back a horse, the less fashionable jockeys, if given the opportunity are just as skilful and able to steer home a winner as those in favour; but often at far better prices than if a more fashionable rider was on board. So don’t dismiss a horse solely on the fact the person in the saddle is not a ‘top’ or fashionable jockey, as you’ll miss out on some cracking bets that are at far better value for money prices.

‘The Life System’ by James Fitzmaurice

There has been much talk around the internet about a mysterious Horse Racing System, with every affiliate jumping on the Band Wagon to be part of a System that is claiming to be making its users phenomenal profits day in and day out. There has been talk of 10..20..30 points profit a DAY!! What’s more all this for 30 minutes work, well I had to see this for myself. So I did some digging around in fact I got hold of the author of this system and spoke to him directly about his system. In his own words “…..For me the life system has set me financially free”, I also contacted a few other associates that have been using the system and the response was the same from all of them; the claims made are FACT NOT FICTION! So without further ado I acquired a copy of this system to see firsthand what all the fuss was about.

What am I talking about – ‘The Life System’ by James Fitzmaurice. This is the second time that this Horse Racing System has been released onto the market, James first published ‘The Life System’ at the end of 2008, since then the system has been tweaked and changed to increase the strike rate and profit. Now I believe this is the third and final version. The first thing that I will say is that The Life System is NOT going to be everyone’s cup of tea, but it does seem to do exactly what the sales copy says (by the way the sales web page is not the best I have seen but the author is an honest person and the claims that he makes are genuine).

Let us start as always with the facts about ‘The Life System’:

1. ‘The Life System’ is a system not a methodology. In as much as the selection process is simple and straight forward, the rules are clear and unambiguous, which makes a refreshing change from some of the systems that I have seen. This means that the selections you generated are exactly those that the author generates. I have been following the results page on the website and comparing them to those that I have and my selections are exactly the same as the authors!
2. What you get in ‘The Life System’ is a backing system.
3. The e-book contains a comprehensive section on money management, 2 Staking Plans (one if you have the time to follow the racing and another for those who prefer the set and go option) and of course the selection process. There are also a couple of examples but the system is so simple to operate that hundreds of examples are not needed. There is also the usual explanation of Betfair and decimal odds.
4. The only resources that you will need are a copy of the Racing Post either online or the newspaper and the pdf e-book.

Now the good points as I see them:

1. It takes me about 30 minutes a day to go through the complete race card to come up with the selections. This is on a Saturday as well, and a further 10-15 minutes to place the bets, so that’s a total of 45 minutes per day (this is Staking Plan 2 the set and go plan). For Staking Plan 1, where you have to follow the races the time is cut down to 30 seconds for selections and 30 seconds to place your bets before the start of each race.
2. The rules for the system are simple and straight forward and by the end of the first day’s racing you will have them committed to memory.
3. You can use ANY bookmaker or exchange for your bets, even the high street Bookies.
4. The profit potential is mind blowing; my review of the system has indeed shown very good profits, but whether these can be maintained long term remains to be seen.

Now the not so good points as I see them:

1. The system has a large number of selections everyday, which means that if you follow the set and go option you will need a good size betting bank, although if you have the time to follow the racing and place your bets as the racing unfolds you can start with as little as £30 which is what the author did when he first started using the system.
2. The selections are in the price range of 3/1 upwards some of the selections are as high as 25/1, the average price being around 10/1. This means that if you prefer a steady stream of low priced winners this system is not for you. However even at an average of 10/1 ‘The Life System’ has a descent average strike rate of around 35%
3. The final negative point is that there will be losing days and they can be quite heavy over 20 points down on a bad day dependent upon which staking plan you follow. However in my opinion a couple of days losing 15 points a day are easily recouped by one day with 30 points profit.

A side note here some of you may be wondering if Staking Plan 1 involves following the live market or betting in running. It does NOT, you do not have to follow the market or place your bets in running, I can’t give away too much information but Staking Plan 1 requires you to know the results of the pervious race; and no it is NOT a lose recovery system or plan.

Okay to sum it up The Life System is worth the money if you can stomach the roller coaster ride, and the profits you get do make it worthwhile! I recommend this system, please follow the links and check it out. The system is currently half price, the author has assured me that this is only until next weekend when it goes back up to full price, and this is NOT a sales pitch the price really is going back up, it has already gone up once in the last week, so don’t deliberate too long!

That link again: ‘The Life System’

Take care and I hope you enjoy the system.

Chris James

PS. I am in the process of trying to extract past results from my database, but it appears as though my computer is currently powered by a tortoise on a tread mill, as soon as I have some results I will be adding them accordingly.

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It now seems that the tortoise has given up the ghost…. I am unable to extract any meaning full results from my database! However I will try and update the results from my own analysis on a weekly basis, in the mean time the authors website does have up to date results. I know this isn’t quite the same but I can assure you that they are accurately reported.

Well I’m Here!

Many thanks to my good friend John Sherry who has pointed me in the ‘Blogging’ direction!

His man is postive inspiration to everyone and I encourage you all to pop along and see what he has to say!